🔗 Share this article

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.