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Just 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.