Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”