NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Final Week.
Entering the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. However, a great deal more is at stake, such as the coveted top seeds in each conference and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have produced a dramatic finale, with the final two play-off positions on the line in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and the Chargers are locked in as wildcard teams.
Houston require a victory and a Jacksonville loss to climb from fifth to third. The Broncos will secure the top seed with a triumph, but a loss could open the door for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers matchup, earning them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still win the division even with a defeat, contingent on other outcomes.
The Packers are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, however, is the battle for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and the 49ers, with a first-round bye and home playoff games on the line.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC receives a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
On Wildcard Weekend, the other six qualified teams compete: the second seed plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
In the second round, the top seeds join the competition, hosting the weakest surviving team. The AFC and NFC championship games are then played at the best remaining team, highlighting the immense importance of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
The Steelers have been inconsistent this season, while Baltimore struggled early but are still in contention. Key injuries could be decisive: The Steelers may miss key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for Baltimore in what is set up as a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is on the line when Seattle visits the 49ers. The winner claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This game features an high-powered 49ers offense against a stingy Seahawks defense. With QB their young passer came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's unit is ranked among the best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB their passer must avoid costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. The team that wins this clash earns a huge edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Both clubs comes into this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped four straight, while the Panthers have squandered chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is trickier. Even with a victory, they require help from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to steal the divisional championship.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the #1 AFC spot. A win over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Broncos loss would hand the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the dark horse. They require a win and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely ascent to #1. More pressingly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
