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England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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