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At first, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious consequences" during the summer should Putin persisted hindering peace negotiations, he finally imposed substantial penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, with his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European input, Trump has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal actually weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a destroyed area of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While freezing in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital if he eventually decide to resume the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate future fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the scale of its military from their present large number soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the proposal places no similar constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, the proposal states: "Any radical doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no obligation that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. While the plan warns of a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the details include vague to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's best deterrent against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not