Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.